CTBT Network Design Sensitivity
Roland R. Draxler
NOAA, Air Resources Laboratory, June 5, 1995
Introduction - It is possible to make some simple calculations to estimate the ability of a sampling network to detect atmospheric contaminants without reference to a particular meteorological model or specific network design. One can calculate the downwind concentration of a pollutant and estimate its horizontal extent. If we assume that the probability of the travel path is uniform over all compass directions, then the probability of detection at any downwind distance is simply the ratio of the plume width over the sampler spacing. A plume extent that exceeds the sampler spacing would have a 100% detection probability. For a narrow plume, assume one that is only half as wide as the sampler spacing, then the probability of detection will be 50%, because in only half the downwind directions could a plume intersect a sampling location.
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