CTBT Network Design Sensitivity

Roland R. Draxler

NOAA, Air Resources Laboratory, June 5, 1995

**Introduction -** It is possible to make
some simple calculations to estimate the ability of a sampling
network to detect atmospheric contaminants without reference to a
particular meteorological model or specific network design.
One can calculate the downwind concentration of a pollutant and
estimate its horizontal extent. If we assume that the
probability of the travel path is uniform over all compass
directions, then the probability of detection at any downwind
distance is simply the ratio of the plume width over the sampler
spacing. A plume extent that exceeds the sampler
spacing would have a 100% detection probability. For a
narrow plume, assume one that is only half as wide as the sampler
spacing, then the probability of detection will be 50%, because in
only half the downwind directions could a plume intersect a
sampling location.

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